Download Weekly Note - 20 April 2026
Local Market Update:
South African markets traded largely in line with global risk dynamics, with limited domestic catalysts during the week. Sentiment remained anchored to external drivers, particularly elevated oil prices and geopolitical tensions, which reinforced inflation concerns and kept the interest rate outlook in focus. Resource stocks tracked commodity volatility, while financials were more subdued amid uncertainty around the global rate cycle. The macro backdrop continued to show tentative stabilisation, but investor positioning remained cautious, reflecting sensitivity to imported inflation risks and the potential for delayed monetary easing from the South African Reserve Bank.
European Market Update:
European markets faced a more challenging week, with growth concerns intensifying following downward revisions to the regional outlook. Elevated energy prices, driven by geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, compounded inflation risks and weighed on industrial sentiment. Capital flows continued to favour U.S. assets, contributing to relative underperformance across European equities. Political uncertainty in key economies added to risk premia, while corporates flagged rising input costs and weaker demand conditions. Overall, the region remained exposed to external shocks, particularly through energy dependency and trade linkages, reinforcing a cautious stance among investors.
US Market Update:
U.S. markets remained resilient, with equities advancing toward record levels supported by strong corporate earnings and continued capital inflows. The narrative of U.S. exceptionalism persisted, as investors rotated into large-cap equities despite rising geopolitical risks. However, bond markets signalled caution, with Treasury yields remaining elevated amid persistent inflation concerns linked to higher energy prices. Expectations for rate cuts from the Federal Reserve were repriced, reflecting a more cautious policy outlook. The divergence between equity strength and bond market signals remained a key theme for investors.
Asia Market Update:
Asian markets experienced a more volatile week, reflecting heightened sensitivity to global macro developments and rising energy prices. As largely energy-importing economies, the region faced renewed inflation pressures, which weighed on sentiment and increased policy uncertainty. Capital outflows persisted as investors favoured U.S. assets, contributing to currency and equity market weakness. Supply chain risks also resurfaced amid concerns around Middle East disruptions. While technology and AI-linked sectors showed pockets of resilience, broader market performance remained constrained by external headwinds and uncertainty around global demand.
Currency Market Update:
Currency markets reflected a clear risk-off bias, with the U.S. dollar strengthening on safe-haven demand and higher Treasury yields. The repricing of rate expectations further supported the dollar, as markets pushed out the timing of easing by the Federal Reserve. In contrast, the South African rand remained under pressure, driven by global risk aversion and rising oil prices, which intensified concerns around imported inflation. Movements were largely externally driven, with limited domestic catalysts, leaving the rand highly sensitive to shifts in global sentiment and capital flows.
Commodity Market Update:
Commodity markets were dominated by sharp movements in oil, as geopolitical tensions in the Middle East reignited concerns over supply disruptions, particularly through key shipping routes. Oil prices surged, reinforcing global inflation risks and complicating central bank policy trajectories. Gold remained well supported, benefiting from safe-haven demand and its role as an inflation hedge amid heightened uncertainty. Volatility across both commodities underscored the market’s sensitivity to geopolitical developments, with price action increasingly driven by headlines around conflict escalation and de-escalation, rather than underlying demand fundamentals.