Download Weekly Note - 13 April 2026
Local Market Update:
South African markets showed resilience, with equities holding firm despite rising global uncertainty. Demand for inflation-linked bonds highlighted continued hedging against price pressures, while the growth outlook of around 1.6% for 2026 faces downside risk from external shocks, particularly higher oil prices. Structural reform remains in focus, with progress on a national AI policy led by the Department of Communications and Digital Technologies. Politically, leadership changes within the Democratic Alliance add another layer of uncertainty ahead of upcoming municipal elections.
European Market Update:
European equities extended gains, supported by cautious optimism around geopolitical developments, with the STOXX 600 posting a third consecutive weekly advance. Earnings expectations improved modestly, with first-quarter growth forecasts rising to around 4.2%. However, underlying risks remain, as reflected in declining defence stocks and weakening corporate signals. Porsche AG reported softer deliveries, highlighting demand pressures in key markets. Meanwhile, Deloitte data showed UK corporate confidence falling to its lowest level since 2020.
US Market Update:
US equities traded mixed as investors remained cautious amid geopolitical uncertainty and evolving inflation dynamics. Data from the US Department of Labor showed headline CPI rising at its fastest pace in nearly four years, driven by a sharp increase in energy prices. While core inflation moderated slightly, elevated oil costs are expected to sustain broader inflationary pressures. Market participation remained subdued, with trading volumes below recent averages, reflecting reduced conviction as investors reassess the outlook for Federal Reserve policy and interest rate cuts.
Asia Market Update:
Asia-Pacific markets weakened as geopolitical tensions escalated following failed US-Iran negotiations. In Japan, policy focus intensified, with Ryosei Akazawa signalling potential measures to support the currency, while the Bank of Japan considers rate hikes to counter imported inflation. A stronger yen is increasingly viewed as a key policy lever. Despite volatility, capital markets activity remains active, with Victory Giant Technology pursuing a sizeable Hong Kong listing.
Currency Market Update:
Currency markets reflected a clear risk-off bias, with the US dollar strengthening on safe-haven demand and shifting rate expectations. The dollar index held near recent highs, supported by rising inflation and geopolitical uncertainty. The South African rand remained broadly stable but vulnerable to external pressures, particularly oil price movements and global risk sentiment. Escalation around the Strait of Hormuz continues to drive volatility, with markets reassessing inflation trajectories and central bank policy paths.
Commodity Market Update:
Commodity markets were dominated by geopolitical developments, with oil prices surging above $100 per barrel on supply disruption concerns. Tensions around the Strait of Hormuz intensified after Donald Trump confirmed plans for a naval blockade, raising risks to Iranian exports. Gold prices declined as a stronger US dollar and reduced expectations for rate cuts weighed on demand. While Saudi Arabia restored pipeline capacity, the outlook remains highly sensitive to further geopolitical escalation and supply developments.