Download Weekly Note - 07 April 2026
Local Market Update:
South African markets navigated a broadly stable macro backdrop over the week of 30 March to 5 April, with easing inflation dynamics and improving domestic conditions reinforcing expectations that the South African Reserve Bank is near the peak of its tightening cycle. Policy intervention remained a focal point, with anti-dumping measures supporting local industry but raising cost pressures across construction and manufacturing. Corporate activity continued to reflect disciplined capital allocation, including restructuring initiatives and portfolio optimisation. Equity performance tracked global risk sentiment, with resource and industrial counters particularly sensitive to shifts in commodity prices and external growth expectations.
European Market Update:
European markets remained constrained by weak growth signals and evolving monetary policy expectations during the week. Soft survey data from S&P Global reinforced a fragile recovery, while disinflation trends supported expectations that the European Central Bank could begin easing policy later in 2026. Elevated bond yields and global risk aversion weighed on equity performance, with defensives outperforming cyclicals. Energy price sensitivity persisted amid geopolitical uncertainty, maintaining upside risks to inflation. Overall, markets continued to balance slowing activity against a gradual shift towards policy normalisation in the second half of the year.
US Market Update:
US markets were dominated by a continued repricing of the interest rate outlook, as resilient economic data reinforced expectations that the Federal Reserve will maintain a restrictive stance for longer. Elevated Treasury yields tightened financial conditions, weighing on equity valuations and driving increased volatility. Corporate developments highlighted sustained strength in artificial intelligence-related capital expenditure, supporting earnings momentum in technology and semiconductor sectors. However, broader market performance remained uneven, reflecting the tension between robust growth dynamics and the implications of higher-for-longer rates across risk assets.
Asia Market Update:
Asian markets reflected a combination of policy support and uneven growth momentum over the period. Data from the National Bureau of Statistics of China pointed to a mixed recovery, with ongoing weakness in property offset by pockets of resilience in manufacturing and exports. Technology sectors, particularly semiconductors, benefited from continued global demand linked to artificial intelligence investment cycles. Policymakers, including the People's Bank of China, maintained an accommodative bias to support activity. Regional equity performance was mixed, reflecting divergence between tech-driven growth and broader macro headwinds.
Currency Market Update:
Currency markets were driven primarily by interest rate differentials and global risk sentiment. The US dollar remained firm, supported by elevated yields and expectations of prolonged policy tightness from the Federal Reserve. The rand weakened over the period, reflecting its sensitivity to external factors rather than domestic fundamentals, with capital flows favouring developed market assets. Broader foreign exchange dynamics continued to underscore the dominance of US monetary policy in shaping global liquidity conditions, with emerging market currencies remaining vulnerable to shifts in risk appetite and rate expectations.
Commodity Market Update:
Commodity markets remained central to the global macro narrative, with oil prices exhibiting volatility amid geopolitical tensions and supply uncertainty linked to OPEC dynamics. This sustained an embedded inflation risk premium within energy markets. In contrast, gold prices softened as higher US real yields and a firmer dollar reduced its relative appeal, despite ongoing geopolitical support. The interplay between energy-driven inflation risks and tighter financial conditions continued to influence broader asset pricing, reinforcing commodities as a key transmission channel into global monetary policy expectations.