Download Weekly Note - 10 November 2025
Local Market Update:
South African markets were subdued through the week as weak manufacturing and softer commodity prices weighed on sentiment. The Absa PMI slipped to 49.2 in October, signalling contraction in industrial activity, while equities tracked lower as gold retreated below $4,000/oz. The government confirmed a modest petrol (−51c/litre) and diesel (−21c/litre) price cut from 5 November, offering slight consumer relief. Broader business confidence remained muted ahead of the Medium-Term Budget Policy Statement, though renewed G20 engagement on inequality and fiscal reform expectations lent modest support to medium-term growth prospects.
European Market Update:
European equities extended losses amid mixed economic data and subdued risk appetite. The eurozone composite PMI rose to 52.5 — its fastest pace in over two years — supported by German industrial resilience, yet offset by a 14-month contraction in French services and weaker retail sales. The ECB maintained a steady policy stance, signalling confidence in temporary disinflation, while the Bank of England held rates but opened the door to a December cut. With central banks nearing the end of their easing cycles, investors adopted a defensive posture amid uneven growth and lingering valuation pressures.
US Market Update:
US markets faced heightened volatility as the prolonged government shutdown tested investor patience and policy confidence. Private-sector payrolls rose 42 000 in October, but equity sentiment faltered on tech-sector weakness and fiscal uncertainty. Fed officials struck a cautious tone: Vice-Chair Jefferson advocated a gradual rate-cut path, and NY Fed’s Williams flagged potential balance-sheet expansion to support liquidity. The dollar softened late week on progress toward reopening the government, while analysts compared current market exuberance to the late-1990s. Investors remained focused on inflation moderation, policy normalisation, and the timing of eventual monetary easing.
Asia Market Update:
Asian markets tracked global weakness early in the week as the dollar strengthened, before stabilising on improved Chinese data. China’s CPI turned positive and producer-price deflation eased in October, signalling tentative recovery momentum. Japan’s real wages fell 1.4% y/y for a ninth month, reinforcing consumption headwinds, while India’s RBI intervened to address liquidity strain. China’s rare-earth exports rose 9% m/m, though shipments to Russia declined sharply. Regional sentiment improved modestly on hopes of a US shutdown resolution and expectations of a near-term Bank of Japan rate hike as inflation remains above target.
Currency Market Update:
The rand traded range-bound between R17.3–R17.5/$ as global sentiment rather than local data dictated flows. Early-week softness followed weak PMI and lower vehicle sales, but mid-week strength emerged as risk appetite recovered and the dollar softened. By Friday, the rand held firm despite global equity corrections, supported by stable commodity inflows and renewed investor demand for emerging-market carry. Market participants remained watchful ahead of the Medium-Term Budget Policy Statement and US shutdown resolution, with near-term direction likely driven by global yield differentials rather than domestic fundamentals.
Commodity Market Update:
Oil prices fluctuated around $65/bbl as OPEC+ paused planned Q1 2026 output hikes and traders weighed supply-glut concerns. Gold strengthened later in the week on a softer dollar and rising rate-cut expectations, while physical demand in Asia eased post-festivals. Codelco trimmed 2025 copper-output guidance, and the US expanded its critical-minerals list to include copper, metallurgical coal, and uranium. Aramco’s Q3 profit slipped 2.3% y/y on lower crude margins. Iron-ore imports into China rose, underscoring industrial resilience even as other commodities weakened, keeping overall sentiment mixed across resource markets.