Download Weekly Note - 03 November 2025
Local Market Update:
South African markets were steady as investor optimism followed the country’s removal from the FATF grey list. The rand traded in a narrow band while SARB Governor Kganyago reaffirmed the shift toward a 3% inflation target, echoed by Fitch. September CPI rose mildly to 3.4% y/y, and the National Treasury confirmed progress toward fiscal consolidation ahead of the 12 November MTBPS. Export strength widened the trade surplus to R21.8 billion, and local equities extended their longest monthly rally since 2013 on strong resource and financial-sector performance.
European Market Update:
European data reaffirmed disinflation momentum, with October HICP slowing to 2.1% y/y and eurozone GDP growing 0.2% q/q. The ECB held rates steady and its Survey of Professional Forecasters signalled inflation returning near target by 2026. Regional equity markets were mixed: banking earnings surprised positively while insurers lagged. Italy narrowly avoided recession, and France’s manufacturing sentiment reached a 19-month high. Despite weaker corporate margins, the STOXX 600 achieved fresh record closes mid-week before retreating on profit-taking as investors balanced optimism with slower growth dynamics.
US Market Update:
The Federal Reserve cut rates 25 bps to 3.75–4.00%, likely concluding the 2025 easing cycle, while the government shutdown delayed key macro releases. Equity indices closed October sharply higher, led by Amazon’s strong results and upbeat AI guidance. Investor sentiment improved on U.S.–China thaw prospects and resilient corporate earnings. Weekly jobless claims eased to around 219 000, though hiring momentum moderated. The dollar remained firm as the Fed’s cautious tone trimmed near-term rate-cut expectations, while mega-caps propelled Wall Street toward record levels despite data uncertainty.
Asia Market Update:
Asian markets were mixed as China’s official manufacturing PMI fell to 49.0, signalling persistent contraction, while authorities weighed new industrial support. Japan’s BOJ maintained its 0.5% yield-cap stance with two dissents, weakening the yen. Tokyo core CPI accelerated and factory output rebounded 2.2% m/m. South Korean exports climbed 3.6% y/y on semiconductors, and India’s growth outlook remained robust. Regional equities tracked Wall Street gains early in the week, but manufacturing weakness in China capped momentum as policymakers balanced stimulus with inflation containment.
Currency Market Update:
The dollar strengthened early, reaching two-week highs against the yen after the BOJ’s dovish hold, before softening on trade optimism. The rand was stable through the week, supported by improving risk appetite and rising export receipts. Fed messaging dampened short-term rate-cut bets, keeping the greenback broadly bid. The yen weakened further on yield-curve control guidance, while the rupee remained under mild pressure despite RBI intervention. Currency markets traded defensively into Friday, reflecting cautious positioning ahead of global data normalisation and November policy updates.
Commodity Market Update:
Commodity markets were volatile but broadly firmer. Oil prices climbed early on optimism over U.S.–China trade progress and extended gains after a sharp U.S. inventory draw, before easing late-week. Gold retreated on dollar strength yet logged a third monthly advance. Copper hovered near record highs as China considered smelter capacity limits, while iron ore rose on restocking demand despite weaker steel output. Broader sentiment reflected supply-chain discipline and geopolitical caution, with investors rotating toward energy and base-metals exposure amid global policy easing expectations.