Download Weekly Note - 23 March 2026
Local Market Update:
South African markets closed the week softer, with the JSE reflecting global risk aversion. Policy developments dominated, as authorities imposed steep anti-dumping tariffs on structural steel imports from China and Thailand, signalling a more assertive trade stance. While supportive of domestic producers, the move raises input cost pressures across construction and industrial sectors. Investor sentiment remains cautious amid ongoing global uncertainty, with attention focused on domestic policy direction and the potential impact of higher costs on margins, inflation dynamics and sector-specific earnings outlooks.
European Market Update:
European equities declined for a third consecutive week, marking the longest losing streak in nearly a year, as escalating Middle East tensions lifted inflation expectations and revived concerns around further monetary tightening. The STOXX 600 recorded notable weekly losses, with energy security risks weighing heavily on sentiment. UK policymakers convened to assess the economic implications, while developments within the financial sector, including planned job cuts, highlighted emerging pressures. Markets remain sensitive to geopolitical developments, with inflation risks and policy uncertainty likely to shape near-term positioning.
US Market Update:
US equities ended the week sharply lower, with the S&P 500 reaching a six-month low as escalating conflict in the Middle East intensified inflation concerns and reduced expectations for policy easing. Market pricing has shifted towards a higher probability of Fed tightening by end-2026, reflecting persistent price pressures. Elevated trading volumes linked to quarterly derivatives expiry contributed to volatility. Despite broader market weakness, corporate signals, including resilient demand indicators, suggest underlying economic activity remains stable, even as geopolitical and policy uncertainty continue to weigh on investor sentiment.
Asia Market Update:
Asian equity markets declined as rising geopolitical tensions pushed US bond yields to multi-month highs and increased volatility in global energy markets. Investor sentiment weakened amid concerns over potential disruptions to Middle East energy infrastructure and limited prospects for near-term de-escalation. The impact is particularly relevant for energy-importing economies, where supply chain pressures are beginning to emerge. Policymakers remain focused on managing inflation spillovers, while markets continue to price in the broader implications of sustained geopolitical instability on regional growth and demand dynamics.
Currency Market Update:
Currency markets were shaped by rising geopolitical tensions and shifting monetary policy expectations. The US dollar strengthened as risk aversion supported safe-haven demand, while the South African rand weakened for a third consecutive week, reflecting sensitivity to global sentiment. European currencies faced pressure from elevated energy prices and inflation risks, although expectations of further tightening provided partial support. Broader FX dynamics continue to be driven by central bank divergence, commodity price movements and geopolitical developments, with volatility likely to remain elevated in the near term.
Commodity Market Update:
Commodity markets reflected a balance between geopolitical supply disruptions and policy-driven offsets. Oil prices remained broadly stable as increased Iranian supply following temporary sanctions relief countered risks to Middle East energy infrastructure. However, disruptions to key facilities and constrained flows through the Strait of Hormuz continue to pose significant supply risks, with potential production losses material. Gold prices declined over the week, pressured by a stronger US dollar and rising interest rate expectations, highlighting reduced safe-haven demand despite elevated geopolitical uncertainty and inflation concerns.