Download Weekly Note - 17 November 2025
Local Market Update:
South African markets focused on the Mid-Year Budget Review, where Treasury lowered the inflation-targeting band to 3% ±1 percentage point, signalling a firmer commitment to price stability. Updated fiscal projections showed the consolidated deficit narrowing to 4.7% of GDP, with debt expected to stabilise around 77.9%. Growth forecasts for 2025 and 2026 were trimmed to 1.2% and 1.5%, respectively, reflecting persistent structural headwinds. October new-vehicle sales reached 55,956 units, the highest since 2015, supporting domestic demand indicators. Sentiment also improved as S&P Global signalled the prospect of South Africa’s first sovereign upgrade in nearly two decades.
European Market Update:
European data releases underscored a subdued macro environment, with the Eurozone Sentix Investor Confidence Index falling to –7.4, reflecting ongoing weakness in forward-looking sentiment. Eurostat’s flash estimate showed Q3 GDP expanding by only 0.2% quarter-on-quarter and 1.4% year-on-year, reaffirming that growth momentum remains modest. Employment rose just 0.1% over the quarter, highlighting labour-market stagnation despite prior resilience. Corporate earnings across the region were mixed, with financials outperforming on stable margins while industrial names remained pressured. Overall, Europe continues to struggle for meaningful traction heading into year-end, weighed down by soft demand and persistent structural constraints.
US Market Update:
The United States entered the week with improved sentiment following the formal end of the 43-day federal government shutdown, which cleared the path for the release of delayed macroeconomic data. Markets turned their attention to the forthcoming publication of key indicators, including non-farm payrolls, CPI and PPI, which are expected to reset visibility on the economic outlook. Gold and equities firmed ahead of the reopening vote, reflecting cautious risk positioning, while oil prices stabilised as traders assessed post-shutdown demand. With clarity returning to federal operations, investors shifted focus back to monetary-policy implications and broader economic momentum.
Asia Market Update:
Asian markets posted mixed performance as regional sentiment improved following the end of the U.S. government shutdown, which helped lift risk appetite in Japan and South Korea. Equity gains were tempered by uneven regional data, with China continuing to show softness in export activity and manufacturing momentum. Asian currencies experienced moderate appreciation against a softer U.S. dollar, while gold demand in the region increased as investors positioned for potential shifts in U.S. policy. Overall, Asia traded in a holding pattern, awaiting clearer signals from global data releases and the policy outlook of major central banks.
Currency Market Update:
Currency markets reflected shifting global risk dynamics, with the U.S. dollar softening as the government shutdown ended and expectations for future Federal Reserve policy adjustments increased. The euro weakened following deteriorating Eurozone sentiment data, particularly the sharp decline in the Sentix Index. Emerging-market currencies broadly benefited from improved risk appetite, led by the South African rand, which strengthened following Treasury’s revised inflation-targeting framework and enhanced fiscal credibility. Asian currencies also saw mild appreciation against the dollar. Overall, FX markets traded steadily, awaiting delayed U.S. data releases that are expected to reset monetary-policy expectations into year-end.
Commodity Market Update:
Commodity markets were driven by shifting U.S. policy expectations and macro uncertainty. Gold extended its gains, rising roughly 2% mid-week as safe-haven demand strengthened ahead of the U.S. government reopening. By 13 November, gold had broken above US$4,200/oz, supported by weaker U.S. dollar dynamics and improved global risk hedging. Oil markets were more muted, with Brent and WTI trading largely flat as traders assessed demand prospects following the end of the shutdown. Revised supply outlooks later in the week weighed slightly on crude prices, reinforcing the market’s sensitivity to inventory signals and global growth indicators.