Download Weekly Note - 13 October 2025
Local Market Update:
South Africa saw continued focus on structural investment and fiscal stability. The EU committed €11.5 billion to energy and transport projects, while municipal debt concerns persist, with Eskom monitoring R416 billion in arrears. Legal developments, including SARS versus Sasfin, and retail consolidation, exemplified by Shoprite-Pepkor, highlight operational and regulatory pressures. These dynamics, combined with ongoing political and economic uncertainty, suggest selective opportunities for investors in infrastructure, utilities, and retail sectors, while maintaining caution around municipal credit exposure and regulatory risk.
European Market Update:
European markets navigated corporate restructuring, strategic acquisitions, and regulatory developments. BDO announced job cuts tied to debt management, while Warburg Pincus moved to acquire a stake in Sebia. Morgan Stanley advanced a $6 billion synthetic risk transfer, signalling innovation in financial instruments. MOL increased energy deliveries to Serbia amid geopolitical shifts, and the European Commission clarified stablecoin regulation. Overall, last week underscored resilient corporate activity, strategic M&A, and regulatory clarity, offering investment avenues in financial services, healthcare, and energy, though geopolitical tensions warrant cautious positioning.
US Market Update:
U.S. markets reflected a mixed macro and corporate backdrop. Investment banking revenues surged 13 % year-on-year, driven by M&A and IPO activity. Citi rejected Grupo Mexico’s Banamex bid, and First Brands Group filed for bankruptcy, highlighting financial sector volatility. The ongoing government shutdown added market uncertainty, while rising consumer credit defaults indicated potential stress in retail finance. Investors should weigh opportunities in robust banking segments and transactional services against risks from policy gridlock, credit quality deterioration, and bankruptcy exposure, maintaining disciplined portfolio risk management.
Asia Market Update:
Asian markets were dominated by China’s commodity imports and trade dynamics. Crude oil imports rose 3.9 % year-on-year, while soybean imports increased 13 %, reflecting strong South American purchases. Iron ore imports hit a record 116 million t, supporting steel production, whereas coal and rare earth exports fell, influenced by domestic pricing and global supply shifts. These trends highlight China’s ongoing industrial demand, providing strategic signals for investors in energy, metals, and agricultural commodities, while suggesting selective exposure to supply-constrained sectors and markets linked to Chinese trade flows.
Currency Market Update:
Currency markets reflected global uncertainty and risk sentiment. The rand weakened against the dollar amid geopolitical concerns and U.S. policy uncertainty. The U.S. dollar strengthened broadly, while the euro came under pressure due to European political risks, and the yen softened amid economic uncertainty. The Indian rupee remained stable, and the yuan held steady on strong trade fundamentals. For investors, currency volatility presents both hedging challenges and tactical opportunities, highlighting the importance of monitoring global macro drivers, geopolitical events, and central bank policy signals when managing FX exposure.
Commodity Market Update:
Commodities saw heightened volatility and safe-haven flows. Gold and silver reached historic highs amid geopolitical tensions and trade uncertainties. Oil rebounded following risk-on sentiment triggered by moderated U.S.-China tariff rhetoric, while copper exhibited pronounced volatility. Geopolitical developments, including Ukraine’s air-defence discussions with the U.S., reinforced sensitivity in energy and metals markets. For investors, last week underscored opportunities in precious metals and selectively in energy, while caution remains critical in industrial metals exposed to macroeconomic swings and geopolitical risk, suggesting tactical positioning rather than broad exposure.