Download Weekly Note - 12 January 2026
Local Market Update:
South African headlines last week reflected softer macro conditions and elevated political risk. The S&P Global PMI slipped to 47.7 in December, extending a full quarter of contraction, while Absa’s manufacturing PMI fell further to 40.5, its weakest reading of 2025, amid sharp declines in inventories and employment. In corporate news, WeBuyCars terminated its inspection partnership with Dekra Automotive, moving assessments in-house after consumer complaints. OUTsurance secured approval for a secondary A2X listing from 14 January 2026. Politically, service-delivery concerns and Iran–Russia naval drills heightened geopolitical sensitivity for local investors.
European Market Update:
European and UK headlines last week pointed to easing inflation alongside mixed growth signals. Eurozone inflation slowed to 2% in December, with German inflation also easing more than expected, reinforcing expectations that price pressures will remain near target through 2026 and supporting prospects for gradual ECB policy easing. Euro area consumption showed resilience, while German industrial orders and retail sales surprised to the upside despite weaker exports. In the UK, construction activity remained under pressure and housing momentum softened, although consumer borrowing proved resilient. Labour-market data signalled cooling hiring conditions, offset by accelerating starting salaries.
US Market Update:
US market headlines last week reflected strong equity momentum alongside shifting policy and political signals. All three major indices recorded solid gains in the first full trading week of 2026, led by materials and industrials, while energy stocks advanced on expectations of improved access to Venezuelan oil following the capture of President Nicolas Maduro. Services activity remained in expansionary territory, with the PMI easing slightly to 52.5. However, housing acquisition firms and defence stocks underperformed amid proposed policy restrictions, while softer labour data did little to alter expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts.
Asia Market Update:
Asia-focused headlines last week highlighted uneven regional momentum and rising policy sensitivity. China’s financial regulator asked major lenders to review Venezuela-related exposures, increasing risk oversight, while annual CPI accelerated to a 34-month high despite subdued full-year inflation and ongoing producer deflation, reinforcing expectations of further policy support. Japan’s services PMI eased to 51.6 and real wages fell 2.8% year on year, underscoring pressure on domestic demand. Elsewhere, Indonesia posted a narrower trade surplus, while Vietnam’s economy grew a robust 8% in 2025, driven by resilient exports to the US despite tariff headwinds.
Currency Market Update:
The rand traded broadly flat against the US dollar over the week, with USD/ZAR slipping 0.05%, as modest support from firmer commodity prices and global risk appetite was offset by ongoing domestic political uncertainty and geopolitical developments. The US dollar weakened against major peers, with EUR/USD falling 0.70%, reflecting easing inflation across the euro area and reinforcing expectations of gradual European Central Bank policy easing.
Commodity Market Update:
Oil prices gained over the week as traders balanced geopolitical risk with supply expectations, with Brent crude finishing higher amid continued focus on Venezuelan developments and broader supply narratives. Markets assessed the potential for increased Venezuelan output and ample inventories as key drivers, even as geopolitical uncertainty remained elevated following the US capture of Venezuela’s President Nicolás Maduro. Safe-haven demand supported precious metals, with gold rallying strongly, contributing to robust weekly gains for both commodities.