Download Weekly Note - 30 March 2026
Local Market Update:
South African markets remained under pressure as the South African Reserve Bank held the repo rate at 6.75%, signalling a cautious stance amid rising inflation risks linked to higher oil prices and rand weakness. Rate cut expectations were pushed out, tightening financial conditions. Fiscal dynamics remained supported by resilient commodity revenues, although vulnerability to external shocks persists. Corporate developments highlighted a strategic pivot towards pan-African growth, particularly in financials. Ongoing governance concerns and global risk aversion continued to weigh on investor sentiment and capital flows.
European Market Update:
European markets faced sustained pressure as the European Central Bank signalled a more cautious easing path amid renewed energy-driven inflation risks. Bond yields moved higher, tightening financial conditions and weighing on equities, with the STOXX Europe 600 recording an extended losing streak. Weak macro data from Germany reinforced concerns around stagnation in the region’s largest economy. Heightened geopolitical tensions, particularly around energy supply routes, added to downside risks, while corporates adopted increasingly cautious guidance as margin pressures and demand uncertainty persist into the second half.
US Market Update:
US markets recalibrated as the Federal Reserve faces a more constrained easing trajectory, with inflation expectations rising on energy price volatility and resilient economic data. Treasury yields firmed, pressuring valuations and driving declines in the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite. While the structural AI investment cycle continues to underpin medium-term earnings expectations, near-term sentiment has softened amid policy uncertainty and regulatory scrutiny of M&A activity. Consumer spending is showing early signs of moderation, suggesting tighter financial conditions are beginning to filter through the economy.
Asia Market Update:
Asian markets weakened as rising US yields and a stronger dollar tightened regional financial conditions, amplifying capital outflow risks. In China, persistent property sector weakness and subdued consumption renewed concerns around growth sustainability despite targeted policy support. The Bank of Japan maintained an accommodative stance, reflecting fragile domestic demand dynamics. Semiconductor trends remained bifurcated, with AI-driven demand offset by broader cyclical softness. Ongoing supply chain diversification continues to benefit parts of Southeast Asia, although geopolitical fragmentation and trade uncertainty remain key structural headwinds.
Currency Market Update:
Currency markets were dominated by US dollar strength, with the US Dollar supported by rising yields and safe-haven demand amid elevated geopolitical risk. The Euro weakened on softer growth data and a dovish policy outlook, while the South African rand depreciated amid global risk aversion and higher oil prices. Emerging market currencies experienced heightened volatility as capital flows responded to shifting rate expectations. Widening interest rate differentials remain the dominant driver of FX pricing, reinforcing a stronger-for-longer dollar environment.
Commodity Market Update:
Commodity markets were driven by energy, with Brent crude oil rallying sharply amid escalating geopolitical tensions around key supply routes, reinforcing global inflation risks. The move prompted a repricing of interest rate expectations, tightening financial conditions across asset classes. In contrast, Gold declined as rising real yields and a stronger US dollar offset safe-haven demand. Broader commodity performance remained mixed, with industrial metals reflecting uncertain demand conditions. Investor positioning shifted towards energy exposure and defensives, highlighting a market increasingly driven by supply-side risks and macro volatility.